The Tom Bearden

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Subject: Incidents and coming threats
Date: Sat, 22 Feb 2003 11:20:56 -0600


Tony and Marcia,

Well, the explosion and fire in New York are certainly suspicious, but as usual it will probably be some time, if ever, before we have any positive indications. But the close synchronicity itself, plus the critical nature of the facilities involved, is suspicious to say the least.

The bad news is that the militant Arab nations have found a neat little way to develop nuclear weapons very quickly, after some preparation time, in compliance with all international agreements, etc.  Iran is well-embarked on that pursuit right now.

Simply put, they opt for a light water nuclear reactor-driven electrical power plant, which is permitted.  But such a plant also produces weapons grade plutonium as part of its spent fuel.  One year or so after operation, one of those major plants will have produced enough plutonium to make (within weeks) 50 nuclear bombs.  The French and the Russians particularly will sell the technology and install the plant.  All the nation does then is drag their feet and not agree to return the spent fuel (which is exactly what Iran has done).  The plant being installed by the Russians in Iran should be on line in a year to a year and a half, and a year later Iran can then suddenly become a nuclear power within weeks.

Syria seems to be headed down the same path, and I've not yet seen what's happening in Egypt and Libya, etc.  [In the Iraqi facilities originally knocked out by Israeli bombing some years ago, enough weapons grade material for a few nuclear bombs had already been produced.]

But it appears now that within the next three years or so, several of the Arab nations specifically carried on the official U.S. list of client nations for terrorists, will gain nuclear weapons in some appreciable quantity.  50 more plutonium bombs worth of material every year the plant is in operation, is the problem and the "great breakthrough" planned by those nations.

So this mess has just started.  A video can actually be seen of an AEI panel presentation, where Henry Sokolski beautifully summarizes the Iran nuclear situation, from the CNN web address given in the following communications:


Dear Mr. Bearden:


We are currently in the midst of transcribing yesterday's panel discussion, "Russia and the Axis of Evil."  In the meantime, however, you can watch video of the entire panel discussion online, courtesy of C-SPAN, at:


All the best,

Vance Serchuk

Research Associate

Russian Studies Program

American Enterprise Institute


>>> Veronique Rodman 02/21/03 01:46PM >>>
The AEI event was called "Dangerous Liaisons: Russia and the Axis of Evil." It was broadcast on C-Span (listed as "Russia and the Axis of Evil") yesterday at 10 am. We are transcribing the proceedings, and I am sending your e-mail to Vance Serchuk who organized the event so that he can e-mail you a draft transcript as soon as it is ready.

Veronique Rodman
Director of Public Affairs
American Enterprise Institute (AEI)
telephone (202) 862-4871

>>> "Tom Bearden"  02/21/03 12:09AM >>>
Dear Veronique,
On a recent TV channel within the last two days, a panel moderated by Leon
Aron had Henry Sokolski on it. Sokolski gave an excellent summary of the
nuclear background for Iran, including present efforts in a light water
reactor, which will produce weapons grade plutonium.
Is a transcript of that delivery available? Unfortunately I was interrupted
and was unable to hear it except for just a smidgeon.
Your response would be very much appreciated.
Tom Bearden, Ph.D.
Lieutenant Colonel, U.S. Army (Retired)


Anyway, it appears that much of the Arab world has now found the path to rather easy attainment of very important and powerful nuclear capability.  I haven't had time to enlarge the search and see just how many others are diddling with it, but I hope to receive a draft transcript of the AEI panel discussion in the future.

By the way, quoting one nuclear warhead design scientist: "Once terrorists have the nuclear fuel, building a bomb is child's play. …The chemistry required to extract the plutonium is less sophisticated than that required for the illegal manufacture of designer drugs." In other words, any nation can easily do it, and those who wish to, will.