one I’m as perplexed as you!
It may be
that the strategy
in this recent incursion was in fact to force the Hezbollah to expend
most of their rockets, with little real result. I suspect somewhere
there, the conclusion was that
Hezbollah would thus lose some face with its hidden backers.
other hand, the Israelis must know that
the KGB is orchestrating both
at the UN, in the MidEast
countries, etc. to set up the scenario that
the KGB desires: the giant eruption of the MidEast into a major war,
Holy Jihad, etc. -- and thus the giant disruption of
MidEast oil. Just how all this
maneuvering is affecting that,
is not obvious or
at least not obvious openly.
important factor is one you touch on: The Israelis have parties and
factions and disagreements also, within their own system. With
ill, the ship doesn’t have such a firm hand on its rudder
at present. One faction would
love to have Netanyahu back in there, other factions would like others,
obviously is also aware of the part that
Iran is playing,
and is planning on playing.
Israel will have
intelligence, e.g., on which of the MidEast powers (such as
have nuclear weapons etc. clandestinely obtained. They will also have
intelligence on the pathways
for resupply of rockets to Hezbollah, etc. Our side doesn’t seem to have
very much of anything in their intelligence along those lines.
the UN maneuvering, the left-leaning press’s maneuvering, etc., it’s a
mess for an outsider to try to make sense of.
thing we have no intel on is what
the status of the “behind the
scenes” maneuvering with the superweapons, etc. are. Or how the MidEast
is connected to
just don’t have the sources anymore to see behind all that
maneuvering in public.
But if it
holds true to
MidEast form (whatever
that is!), the bad guys are
just going to get worse and keep blustering (and firing a few rockets
etc.) while appearing to more or less go along with ceasefire so they
have time to regroup and resupply. The good guys are going to keep
changing in bewildering ways so that
– e.g., the Hezbollah and others – it keeps the bad guys “off guard” as
to what real Israeli strategy
is. It’s sorta like shuffling the cups in a bewildering way, and then
having to wonder which cup the pea is under. That
kind of “obfuscation” is
often an Israeli strategy.
considerations are that
Israel is trying
not to embarrass Tony Blair or George Bush too much with their British
and American constituencies. One of the great
disadvantages of a democracy is that
the populace (or much of it) often thinks that
the way one solves nasty old world problems when the going gets really
sticky, is just to vote out the present administration
and vote in a new one – most any kind of new one that
makes all the right statements
our own populace still views war as it was done in the Middle Ages. The
bad guys act up, and our knights then are supposed to ride out of the
protected castle/fortress and go out there in the field and whomp the
bad guys’ army. Then they turn right around and ride back into the
protected fortress, and that’s
that. I checked once to see
when U.S. military institutes such as the War College and Command and
General Staff College really got down to teaching something serious in
asymmetric war, which is what
we have today. Shockingly, until fairly recently they really did not
cover the subject with any thoroughness and depth, but just a bit of lip
service. Now they do cover it, but they still have not put the answers
together – for one thing, they still don’t admit or teach the
This is the mishmash in which we find ourselves. These days, I’m so
limited on real sources that
I really can’t adequately
assess the situation. As one
gets older etc., things happen and one easily gets “parked”. I laugh
at it, but I think I’ve just
about been “parked” insofar as the military is concerned.
just does what one can.
Fortunately we have a very
strong and dedicated – and
highly capable – little team, with the website also, and so we can
continue to get out what
information we can that
could be useful. Particularly in the EFTV area. I was quite disappointed
at my experience with the
NSF; the Director himself is trying to shape NSF into an organization
sponsoring and funding research
at the cutting edge of
science. But even though they turned me over to really decent folks,
because of the subject – electrical power engineering – they turned me
over to the top echelon of the electrical engineers! And of course that’s
the end of it. As I say, they are good folks, but still hampered
severely by the old doctrine so seriously flawed but accepted so
universally and so broadly.
main effort for me is to continue doing all we can so our team can
continue to get out much-needed information
at least pointing the way in
EFTV. Much of the MidEast power, and other asymmetric warfare power to
affect us or damage us, is due to our basically terrible vulnerability
in energy – and our die-hard scientific determination
to keep doing the same old things but just a bit better.
hang in there! These are indeed troubled times internationally,
and it’s not going to get any better. Our antagonists know that
one of our great
vulnerabilities, in the area called “National
Style”, is that Americans do
not react to slowly increasing threats.
They react to the rattler’s
strike, but not to the slow squeezing of the boa constrictor.
antagonists’ main strategy is
to keep us in the “boa constrictor” and steadily being increasingly
squeezed situation – while
preparing all the rattlers to
strike. Then, their strategy
is to unleash a lightning series of rattler
strikes, until we fold up in a daze as a helpless victim.
but something along those lines is their strategy.
Israelis are perfectly aware of all that,
and also have a strategy that
recognizes just where they have to “turn the tide” or divert the slow
squeezing. Unfortunately, that
strategy is one they never
discuss or even admit. But it’s there, and
at some point parts of it
will just suddenly be released and become visible.
wishes and hang in there!